What Will Happen After the Election?
Issue #195
Last week I wrote about what I think the results of the election will be. This week I'm going to lay out different scenarios that I believe are possible in the months following the election. But first I want to update my Best Case prediction for Trump.
As a political scientist, I have never seen as much enthusiasm for a political candidate as I see now for Trump. I think all of the (unprecedented and bullshit) lawfare waged against him, the assassination attempts and years of demonization have (ironically) made him much more popular than he otherwise would have been. The American people like to cheer for an underdog and don't like to see someone bullied unfairly. Many Trump supporters embrace his status as a convicted felon by displaying “Felon/Hillbilly 2024” signs in their yard.
He has also assembled the broadest and most diverse coalition in modern political history: union and blue collar workers, billionaires, blacks, Hispanics, Christians, Jews, Muslims and Arabs, young people, peace activists, health enthusiasts, libertarians, free speech advocates, cryptocurrency users, former Democrats, etc. By contrast, Kamala has the Cheneys and the rest of the military-intelligence-industrial complex.
I thought Trump's impressive and historic rally at Madison Square Garden in the heart of a deep blue city was the final nail in Kamala's coffin, but then Joseph Robinette referred to Trump's supporters as “garbage,” which was not helpful for Kam at a time that Trump and Vance have been calling for unity and reconciliation. As Dale Carnegie would say, how do you win friends and influence people (including voters)? By calling them “garbage,” duh! In a brilliant response, Trump rode along in a garbage truck in Wisconsin, a followup to his hilarious stint working at McDonald's.
A few points. First, one of the reasons people like Trump is because he makes them laugh. Historically, Leftists have had no sense of humor. Constantly trying to force people to do things is not conducive to having fun and being of good cheer. Despite all of the talk about Joy, it's Trump supporters who are joyous.
Second, the “garbage” slur is just the latest in a long string of insults that statist politicians have hurled at Trump supporters for years. Barry Soetoro said they were bitter, clinging to their guns or religion. Hillary called them deplorables, Kamala dubbed them fascists. This laziness and lack of curiosity and empathy explains why Democrats have to cheat to win elections. Perhaps the proles are (rightfully) upset by how these politicians' policies have wrecked their lives?
Trump also sat for a three hour interview on the very popular Joe Rogan podcast. Kamala was also invited but turned it down, like she did with the de rigueur Al Smith dinner. Rogan interviewed J.D. Vance today.
In recent weeks, the Legacy Media have bent over backwards in an attempt to salvage Kamala's campaign. After “60 Minutes” aired a heavily edited and deceitful interview with her, the hard-nosed journalists at “The View” asked her if she would have done anything differently from Biden during the last four years and she replied, “There is not a thing that comes to mind....” Wow. Surely there is something he did during that time that she disagreed with? They gave her the perfect opportunity to put some much-needed distance between her and Biden, and she blew it.
I think for many Democrats and voters, this was the final straw. In recent days and weeks, I've noticed a number of leftist journalists distancing themselves from her like rats on a sinking ship in an effort to salvage the one small shred of credibility they have left.
It's no surprise, then, that Trump has opened up a shockingly large lead in less than a month and is now widely expected to win. In the final days of the campaign, Trump is going on offense by campaigning in Virginia and New Mexico.
Consequently, I have updated my Best Case electoral map for Trump, as (barring widespread voter fraud), I now believe this election will be a blowout. I know I'm going out on a limb by calling Walz's Minnesota for Trump, but Walz has now been exposed for who he really is. Remember, in 2016 Trump was down by 17 points in the polls in Wisconsin but still won the state.
Now I'd like to talk about what I think will happen after November 5. I predict that this election won't be resolved until just before the deadline sometime in January. The Legacy Media won't call enough states for Trump to give him a presumptive victory. There will be many allegations (and irrefutable proof) of voting fraud and many court cases that will take months to play out, though I predict that like in 2020, the courts won't want to get involved, which will allow fraud to stand. (Four years ago, the cheaters learned that voting fraud pays, and they can get away with it, even if it's captured on video.) Although this election should be more secure than the one in 2020, there are many, many ways to cheat, especially with mail-in, dropped off or harvested ballots.
Trump supporters currently feel in control and optimistic, so a narrow Kamala victory would come as a real shock. It would be the ultimate Sumter Gambit. After the trap Trump supporters were drawn into on January 6 by the Deep State, I am concerned about this possibility. I'm sure a number of Trump supporters (and undercover Antifa members or FBI agents) would react in an extremely negative way, which would not end well for liberty. This is the worst possible outcome.
A Trump victory would result in months of continual riots, like the summer of 2020. After a four-year hiatus, it would suddenly no longer be an imprisonable offense to question the results of an election, and people who did so would not be disparaged as Election Deniers. Instead of solitary confinement, they would recieve book royalties.
Trump Derangement Syndrome has been a real phenomenon for the last eight years (interestingly, Rogan reminded Trump that everyone loved him in 2015, including all of the hosts of “The View”), but in recent days, I have seen some extreme examples of Cluster B Longhouse psychological disorders among Trump's opponents. For example, Hoopi says Trump will break up interracial marriages. Uh, does J.D. Vance (and his Indian wife) know about this plan? This Kamala supporter claims Trump will round up leftists and put them into camps. You mean like the camps that public health tyrants wanted to put COVID dissidents in just a few years ago?
Last week I wrote, “The real unknown is which party will control the House. This gets very little attention but could be quite a headache for a Trump administration.” Jim Rickards (all of whose books I've read) recently wrote, “Even if Trump can win the election with 270 or more Electoral College votes, likely as of now, the fight will not be over. The Democrats have another lawfare trick up their sleeves. If Democrats retake the House of Representatives [currently a 45% chance, which is the lowest since late February], then on Jan. 6, 2025, the New Democrat-controlled House could pass a resolution that Trump is an 'insurrectionist' and disqualify his electoral votes under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment.” Interesting, so the Democrats may also “try to overturn the results of an election” on January 6.
Rickards continues: “Kamala would not have 270 electoral votes needed to win. This would throw the election of the president to the House of Representatives voting as state delegations, not as individuals. Under the XII Amendment (1804), only Kamala Harris could receive votes for president assuming Trump was disqualified and no other candidate won any electors at all. J.D. Vance would suffer no insurrectionist disqualification. So the result could be Kamala Harris as president and J.D. Vance as vice president (similar to Jefferson and Burr in 1800).”
Rickards concludes: “Another possibility is that the Republican-controlled state delegations in the House could boycott the presidential vote in which case a quorum would be lacking. In that case, the vice president (J.D. Vance) “shall act as president” under the XII Amendment. This is not a far-fetched scenario. Democrats led by Jamie Raskin have already set the wheels in motion.”
So even if Trump is declared the winner, there's about a 45% chance that Democrats will win control of the House, in which case they plan to use the 12th Amendment to prevent him from taking office. I suppose they could also try to impeach him (for a third time) before he even took office, just like they impeached him a second time after he had already left office. Also, the Deep State spied on his campaign (under false pretenses cooked up by Hillary's campaign and the DNC) in 2016 before he took office, so anything goes.
Additionally, Trump still faces some unresolved court cases. Judge Merchan postponed his sentencing in the Manhattan hush money criminal trial to November 26. Trump could be sentenced to up to four years in prison. What happens if he wins the election but gets prison time? Could he end up like Jeffrey Epstein? If he loses the election, would that ensure that he would wind up in prison? Jack Smith has also brought new charges against him.
If Democrats, the ruling elite and the Deep State exhaust all of their political, legal and judicial options, there are always protests and riots, in which the Left became quite proficient after months of practice during 2020.
I just read a very insightful article by Lee Smith called “Is the Left Preparing for War If Trump Wins?” Smith writes, “Democratic Party research and media reports show that many senior party officials and operatives are preparing for the possibility of a Trump victory.... planning is focused on undermining the incoming president with enough violence to rock his administration. [You may recall the attack on the White House during 2020 that required manpower from several federal agencies to repel.] ...post-election scenarios forecast such widespread rioting that the newly elected president would be compelled to invoke the Insurrection Act. With some senior military officials refusing to follow Trump’s orders, according to the scenarios, the U.S. Armed Forces would split, leaving America on the edge of the abyss.”
Smith continues, “The purpose of the Hitler narrative...[is] to justify taking extreme measures against [Trump] and the America First movement and ensure that the bulk of the military sides with the anti-Trump plot. Thus, it is best understood in the context of recent accounts promising, or urging, violence after the November vote.” Recently the New York Times published a long article by two Harvard professors who proposed that “private industry join civil society organizations to ostracize Trump and his supporters and engage in large public protests to provoke a crisis.” Which sounds similar to the secret cabal that Time magazine bragged about after the 2020 election.
Smith writes, “The propaganda meant to establish a predicate to employ violence to stop Trump has been reinforced at the highest levels of the Democratic Party.” Congressman Raskin, who plans to invoke the 12th Amendment above, said, “It’s going to be up to us on January 6, 2025, to tell the rampaging Trump mobs that he’s disqualified. And then we need bodyguards for everybody in civil war conditions.”
Smith concludes, “This self-serving logic not only gets the Left off the hook for past depredations; it serves as the pretext for future violence against Trump, his aides, and his supporters. After November 5, this weaponized narrative could be expanded to justify violence on a mass scale designed to break the republic.” In recent years, I've heard of plenty of political commentators who have called for the end of America and its constitutional republic.
Up until now, the vast majority of participants in America's political arena have been relatively well-behaved (other than a couple of assassins and a handful of rogue prosecutors). We go to the polls like good little citizens and politely wait in line to vote before proudly sporting an “I voted” sticker. We laugh at memes and political stunts. A few people resort to name-calling.
I predict that all of that will quickly come to an end after November 5. It's going to get ugly and often violent (which, to be clear, I oppose). Months of strife and riots will result in many billions of dollars worth of damage, the death of dozens (perhaps hundreds) of people, the injury of thousands, and the destruction of hundreds of buildings and businesses. Supply chains will be disrupted and many goods will become impossible to obtain. Law and order will break down in most major cities and citizens will have to fend for themselves. The federal government will try to crack down on dissent, free speech and the right to bear arms.
Financial markets hate uncertainty, so civil unrest over a hung election will roil the markets with extreme volatility, creating large risks as well as opportunities. The U.S. stock market could easily drop by 50%, especially from its current richly valued level. And if you think the Federal Reserve controls interest rates, just wait and see what market forces can do to them when lenders don't know if, when or how they will be repaid.
I really hope the election goes well without too much fraud, that there is a peaceful transfer of power, and that the American people consider the winning political candidates to have legitimately won the election. But as a betting man and a prepper, I'm not counting on it.
News You Can Use
Leftists Are Terrified About What Will Happen to Them If Trump Wins the Election
The Three-Decade War on Honest Voting
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Great read, Rob. Lots of insight in detail, thank you.
Bizarre times ahead for sure.
". . . the highest levels of the Democratic Party.” Congressman Raskin, who plans to invoke the 12th Amendment above, said, “It’s going to be up to us on January 6, 2025, to tell the rampaging Trump mobs that he’s disqualified. And then we need bodyguards for everybody in civil war conditions.”
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I didn’t realize until just now that my vote for Trump made me part of a ‘rampaging Trump mob.’ Nor that Democrats at this level are openly calling for violence on this scale.
The problem with Rob’s frightening analysis is the clarity, logic, and coherence with which he lays out a sequence of devastating events that may well-nigh be upon us. I have never seen this scenario so clearly, so honestly painted. This is not a ‘gloom & doom’ fantasy piece . . . it’s terrifyingly plausible. Damn!