Handicapping the 2024 Election

Issue #194

With the election just 11 days away, many are wondering what they should be prepared for. Let's take a look.

First, it appears that the odds of Republicans taking control of the Senate are about 84%. This affects confirmation of presidential appointments (including for the Supreme Court) and ratification of treaties (which is extremely important given the power grab in recent years by the UN and WHO, the EU, climate-related organizations, etc.).

Control of the House of Representatives could go either way. This would affect all spending bills, investigations, oversight, etc. Trump has some long coattails, but voting fraud will certainly be a factor. Some of these races could take days or even weeks for a winner to be declared. If Kamala can't beat Trump, the Democrats will do whatever it takes to prevent the House from falling under Republican control.

Currently the odds of Trump winning are 58.9%. One important consideration is the voter ID requirements in each state. As you can see from the map below, Georgia, North Carolina and Wisconsin require photo ID, Michigan requires photo ID but there are workarounds, Arizona requires some form of ID, and Pennsylvania and Nevada do not require any ID at all. Currently Trump leads in Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, Michigan and Pennsylvania, Kamala has a slight lead in Nevada, and Wisconsin is a dead heat.

Given this setup, I'm going to put Georgia (+1.3%) and North Carolina (+1.9%) in Trump's column and award Nevada to Kamala. In a normal world, Trump should win Arizona (+1.5%), but the Secretary of State who oversaw the voting irregularities in the 2020 election is now the governor. Nevertheless, if Trump doesn't win Arizona, he can still win the election by winning either Pennsylvania or Michigan and Wisconsin. I will cautiously put Arizona in Trump's column since it's a border state and illegal immigration is one of the most important issues in this election.

That would leave Trump with 262 electoral votes, with 270 needed to win. So he would need to win only Wisconsin, Michigan or Pennsylvania. Even though Trump is ahead by three percentage points in Pennsylvania, Philadelphia was Ground Zero for some of the most brazen voting fraud in the 2020 election (e.g., Republican poll watchers were banished from the room where votes were being counted, and their view of the room was obstructed by pizza boxes that poll workers attached to the windows). So I am hesitant to award this to Trump despite his lead, and will assume the machine rigs the election for Kamala.

Trump has a 2.2 percentage point lead in Michigan, which has fairly strict voter ID requirements, so I'm going to put it in his column. He has a 1.1 percentage point lead in strict voter ID Wisconsin, so I will award that to him as well, giving him 287 electoral votes. My predicted electoral map is below.

I have made major political calls before (I've been following politics since I was a teenager, and my bachelor's degree is in Political Science). I called the 1994 Republican takeover of the House (Newt Gingrich was my Congressman at the time). I also predicted that Trump would defeat Hillary in 2016 when virtually everyone else thought Hillary would win. So I am attuned to tectonic shifts in the political landscape and major political realignments.

The prediction above is conservative. I also believe there is a real possibility this could be a blowout. Trump has earned the Republican nomination for president three times, and served for four years. Most Americans believe he did a good job, especially with the economy and illegal immigration. He has been a prominent figure (real estate tycoon, the U.S. Football League, “The Apprentice” TV show, etc.) for his entire adult life, so he's a known quantity. His campaign has had momentum for weeks, he's aligned with respected former Democrats (Bobby Kennedy and Tulsi Gabbard), and his rallies have been drawing huge, enthusiastic crowds.

Additionally, Americans are weary of wokeness, military adventurism (and defeat), illegal aliens, crime, providing aid to foreign countries at the expense of citizens, being lied to by the government and the Legacy Media, incompetence and senility.

Kamala largely slept her way to the top and was Biden's ultimate DEI hire. She was widely regarded as the worst and most unpopular vice president ever. Her role as Border Czar was a complete disaster, she can't speak without a teleprompter and she's in way over her head. She never received a single vote in a presidential primary, and she was installed as the nominee at the last minute by the Democratic elite in a palace coup that even Democrats don't approve of. Her running mate is a “weird” Maoist liar, guilty of stolen valor. Both are two of the most radical Leftists to have ever held elected office.

So the presidential race has the potential to be a blowout; I can almost feel it. My “best case” prediction for Trump is below:

The real unknown is which party will control the House. This gets very little attention but could be quite a headache for a Trump administration.

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